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Weather Forecast Office The development of daily Florida summer thunderstorms are the result of interactions between the larger scale (synoptic) wind flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and the various smaller scale sea-breezes, lake-breezes, and river-breezes, which form daily across the state. The size and location of the box was chosen to be a good mid-point value in the study area. Sea breeze thunderstorms don't last for very long, but they can be a doozy, sometimes producing flooding rains, vivid lightning, and occasionally some damaging wind gusts. Storms often form from what's called a sea breeze collision Florida is known for its thunderstorms, but do you know why there are so many? 2) A mean vector wind was calculated from U and V components at each of the following levels with the red box outlined in Fig 1. Please select one of the following: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Version 2 (CFSRv2), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Weather Forecast Office During the afternoon hours, the sea breeze from the Atlantic, and the sea breeze from the Gulf of Mexico, eventually run into each other right over the center of Florida. Florida Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Climatology. But why? The sea breeze front is visible as the thin blue line moving slowly away from the coast. Flooding Threat Continues Along the Gulf Coast, Severe Weather Likely for the Southeast and East Coast Sunday and Monday, Elevated fire weather for southern California. 8) This same methodology was used to calculate the PoP for 3-hourly, 6-hourly, and 12-hourly time periods for each of the 8 regimes. Multiple research studies have examined Florida's sea breeze in an effort to better predict thunderstorms. The arrows represent the moisture laden air from the Atlantic and the Gulf, moving towards each other. Since the air is typically warm and moist over Florida, this lifting can aid in the development of storms. Also notice that there is no organized rain band over the panhandle of Florida. Graphics for these time-periods showing the probability of precipitation at each grid box across the state of Florida can be found by clicking the individual flow regime tabs at the top of the page. Air over the Gulf of Mexico is rushing in from the west to east to replace the rising air. But why? 7) For each 2.5 x 2.5km grid box across the southeastern United States, the Probability of Precipitation (PoP), was calculated for each of the 24 hourly periods within a given day. 5) Next step was the download of hourly gridded Stage 4 QPE data for all days included in the study. Copyright © 2017, WeatherNation®, All rights reserved. Sea breeze storms today and tomorrow afternoon in South Florida and then with the help of an East flow, they should eventually move towards Interior areas and the Gulf Coast. Therefore inland thunderstorms are often triggered by … For WeatherNation:  Meteorologist Matt Monroe, Your email address will not be published. A 9th regime defined in figure 3 was not included in the final study due to lack of sample size. Here’s an example from Florida in July of 2018 showing how the sea breeze can produce thunderstorms. The development of daily Florida summer thunderstorms are the result of interactions between the larger scale (synoptic) wind flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and the various smaller scale sea-breezes, lake-breezes, and river-breezes, which form daily across the state. Questions? Florida sea breeze thunderstorm climatology. ORLANDO, Fla. — Florida is known for its thunderstorms, but do you know why there are so many? 6) Hourly grids written to a binary 1 or 0 grid based on whether each 2.5x2.5km grid recorded measurable precipitation during that hour. National Weather Service Your email address will not be published. Florida Sea Breeze Microburst Thunderstorm - Duration: 3:18. stormvideographer Recommended for you. Sorry, the location you searched for was not found. At the same time, the exact same thing is happening along the west coast of Florida. Days included in this study included June 1st through September 15th for the years 2002 through 2016. Measurable precipitation was defined as >= 0.02". Please Contact Us. Florida sea breeze thunderstorm climatology. And how does it all work? But during the summer in Florida, a sea breeze often leads to afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior sections of the peninsula. To see the number of days in this study fell into each flow regime, please see the individual flow regime tabs at the top of the page. 3-hourly: 06-09, 09-12, 12-15, 15-18, 18-21, 21-00, 00-03, 03-06. The image below shows an example of a weak sea breeze set-up that can aid in thunderstorm development. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Perfect conditions for kite flying or perhaps a filling the sails of a schooner zipping along the coast. The Gulf of Mexico is always warm, but it’s not nearly as warm as the landmass being heated by the intense Florida sunshine. The converging air masses contain water vapor collected from the Atlantic and the Gulf. And how does it all work? South Florida’s easy sea breeze is a fresh afternoon lift on stale summer days, but it is an accomplice to a darker force. All images on this page can be magnified by clicking, and resized back to original size with a second click. The land over Florida cools faster than the warm ocean waters, and a land breeze forms. When powerful this front creates cumulus clouds, and if the air is humid and unstable, the front can sometimes trigger thunderstorms. Days included in this study included June 1st through September 15th for the years 2002 through 2016. Fig 1)                                                                                       Fig 2). Multiple locations were found. The Florida peninsula is much wider, therefore opposing sea breezes usually don’t penetrate far enough to meet. 1-hourly: 06-07, 07-08, 08-09, 09-10, 10-11, 11-12, 12-13, 13-14, 14-15, 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, 18-19, 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, 22-23, 23-00, 00-01, 01-02, 02-03, 03-04,  05-06. Tampa Bay Area, FL. The entire process begins as soon as the sun rises. A sea-breeze front is a weather front created by a sea breeze, also known as a convergence zone. Tonight's question is about the sea-breeze and how it creates thunderstorms. As the air rises, it cools, and water vapor condenses into water droplets, forming clouds, and eventually showers and thunderstorms. That’s because showers and storms there will be more scattered in nature. US Dept of Commerce Thunderstorms in Dunedin & Clearwater Florida 1/22/2016 - Duration: 1:02. The winds blow from Florida out to sea. There will be only one sea breeze moving northward, from the Gulf over land. Very slowly, the sun begins to heat up the land surface. When two air masses from opposite directions collide, it forces air upwards. There is no convergence zone. 1000mb, 925mb, 850mb, and 700mb. If the flow aloft is aligned with the direction of the sea breeze, places experiencing the sea breeze frontal passage will have benign, or fair, weather for the remainder of the d… The green area is the rain, forecasted to fall over central Florida. However, any location could have been chosen as the wind data is used to define a postion and strength of the subtropical ridge relative to that location. When you think of a sea breeze along the coast, it usually conjures up images of gentle winds coming onshore. But during the summer in Florida, a sea breeze often leads to afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior sections of the peninsula. Required fields are marked *. The image below depicts the sea breeze forming over the east coast of Florida. Tampa Bay Area, FL2525 14th Ave. SERuskin, FL 33570(813) 645-2323Comments? Further inland the sea breeze front is often deformed or destroyed by cool outflow from thunderstorms. 1) 1200 UTC data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Version 2 (CFSRv2) for each day was downloaded and analyzed. This layer has been established from earlier Florida Sea-breeze studies to correspond best to the layer with direct interaction with the sea-breeze. The hourly data for each day defined to be in a particular flow regime were then grouped together. As we know, hot air rises. Light west wind (5-10 mph) keeps the sea breeze front confined to the eastern coast but also makes for more widespread thunderstorms along the boundary. This is the Atlantic sea breeze. Florida Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime Methodology. The definitions for each flow regime, directional and speed ranges, are shown in figure 3. For example, if regime #1 had 100 days in its sample set, and 40 of those days had measurable precipitation between 17UTC and 18UTC, then the PoP between 17UTC and 18UTC is 40%. This is called a convergence zone. Perfect conditions for kite flying or perhaps a filling the sails of a schooner zipping along the coast. Notice the north-south orientation of the rain band. A forecast implication is that the sea breeze can act like a weak cool front that serves as a lifting mechanism. This is depicted in the image below. 4) Based on this final mean vector wind, each day was categorized into one of eight flow regime patterns. Tampa Bay Area, FL. 3:18. 3) A final mean vector wind was then calculated through the 1000-700mb layer. During the evening and overnight hours, the exact opposite process happens. The entire process begins as soon as the sun rises. All times are in UTC. 1) 1200 UTC data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Version 2 (CFSRv2) for each day was downloaded and analyzed. Please try another search. The cold air from the sea meets the warmer air from the land and creates a boundary like a shallow cold front. NWS As the air over central Florida rises, cooler air over the Atlantic Ocean moves in from east to west to replace the rising pocket of air near the surface. 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